I've been following the political situation in Iran following their controversial election on June 12th quite closely. I won’t pretend to have a firm understanding of the forces at play in their political sphere, so I won’t advocate a course of action for their country, or for my own.
However, I am interested in the specific point, that I have heard from several sources, that should the US, for any reason, choose to get involved in the dispute to assist the uprising crowds, it would have the effect of reinforcing the existing regime by giving them a plausible opponent (the USA) to rally against. Is there a geo political term for this situation? Is it a revolutionary catch 22? Let us pretend, solely for discussion sake, that the up risers are in fact looking for a full revolution in Iran. We can then also imagine that the only way they will succeed is with intervention and assistance from the US (a highly debatable assumption, but not very germane to this discussion). At the same time, the US backing the uprising revolutionaries might seemingly lead to the existing regime gaining additional strength and ultimately making the revolution less likely to succeed. Would the net effect be a stalemate? As the USA ratcheted up the support for the revolution, would the existing regime hunker down further and further? Just to clarify, I do not feel comfortable advocating support for the revolution or any US interaction, I am just interested in the power struggle presented above.
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I think you summarized the situation right, though I don't have a catchy phrase for it. What ever support the US applies will be met with equal fot - to a point of course. The US could theoretically roll in from the Iraq side and try to settle it by brute force. Fortunately, it seems like the people in charge are smart enough to be staying out of it.
I think we need some form of the Prime Directive from Star Trek. If any force from outside a system is applied to that system then it will no settle to a natural state. If these guys can figure out a solution to the problem it be a more permanent solution that is better for everyone.
I agree about the prime directive idea. I hope the stable position for the system doesn't involve the slaughter or oppression of millions.
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